Sweden national football team has a strong chance of reaching the knockout stage in the 2026 World Cup. According to Norwegian VG, Sweden has a 93.3% chance of reaching the knockout stage. This is one of the highest chances among all World Cup teams. In collaboration with Norsk Regnesentral, VG has calculated Sweden's chances of advancing in the World Cup based on 100,000 simulations of the tournament. According to the calculation, Sweden has a 23.9% chance of winning Group F and a 25.4% chance of finishing second. In the round of 16, the first and second teams in Group F will meet the first and second teams in Group C, which will likely be Brazil, Morocco, or Scotland. But the most likely scenario, with a 49% probability, is that Sweden finishes third in the group after the Netherlands and Japan – the two remaining teams to meet. After the 5-1 win over Tunisia in the first match, it is likely that Sweden will be one of the eight best third-placed teams and then face the winner of either Group A, B, D, E, or I. Sweden's internal ranking among the eight best third-placed teams does not affect the opponent. The knockout stage is based on FIFA's official World Cup regulations, which include all 495 possible combinations of the eight best third-placed teams. If Sweden advances as third in Group F, it will face the winner of Group I in 83.6% of the scenarios in FIFA's knockout stage model. There, France, Norway, Senegal, and Iraq play. The second most likely group winner as an opponent (10.6%) plays in Group E, which is led by Germany.